Risk Indicator Tracker

Score what you can actually observe, across eight domains. The tool holds the structure so your judgement stays visible and revisable.

This is a method tool, not an intelligence product. It contains no live data, no forecast, and no assessment of any current situation. Every score is yours, entered from open sources you have read and judged. The value is in making a judgement explicit enough that you can revise it when the evidence changes, and in seeing which of your conclusions rest on thin ground.

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Low confidence

Score some indicators and a reading appears here.

Gap Priority Matrix

Not every unknown matters equally. This ranks what you do not know by how much it would change your conclusion if you learned it.

A gap is worth collecting on when three things hold at once: you have low confidence in it, it would materially move your assessment, and it is realistically observable from sources you can reach. An unknown that fails the third test is not a collection priority, it is a caveat you must state and live with. The matrix below computes priority from the scores you have already entered.

Analytic Method

Nine structured techniques for keeping a judgement honest, each with what it is for and the failure it prevents.

Calibrated Language

Words carrying probability should mean the same thing every time you use them. Fix a scale, publish it, and hold to it.

My Checklist

A working checklist built from your scores, plus your own added lines. Export it and bring it back next time.